A mere 60 days ago when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
